Bayes Rule Lab

Instructions

• Read Sections 13.4 and 13.5 in our textbook.
• Answer the following questions:

You select a coin at random: 2/3 of the coins are unfair, 1/3 of the coins are fair. The fair coins are equally likely to flip heads or tails. The unfair coins flip heads 3/4 of the times, and tails 1/4 of the times. You flip the selected coin and get heads or tails. Find (1) the probability that the selected coin is fair given the flip is heads, (2) the probability that the selected coin is fair given the flip is tails, (3) the probability that the selected coin is unfair given the flip is heads, and (4) the probability that the selected coin is unfair given the flip is tails.